Which Team Will That Be?
Aces WNBA Finals Game 1 Prediction & Best Bets (10/3): Who Will Strike First in Vegas?
The first 2 rounds of the 2025 WNBA playoffs have been a real treat. Now, only 2 teams remain. Tonight, the very first of a historical match pitting the Phoenix Mercury vs. the Las Vegas Aces starts at Michelob Ultra Arena (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN).
It is a historic match, as it is the first best-of-seven WNBA Finals in the league's history. It started with a single national championship in the league's inaugural season in 1997, broadened to a best-of-three series from 1998 to 2004, and was a best-of-five series for the previous 20 seasons.
Now, the WNBA is on par with the NBA and NHL as having a seven-game championship series. And what a time for its inception, as the quality of basketball in the regular season and in the postseason has been extraordinary.
The Mercury and Aces have been a huge part of that, and both groups have made their location in the championship series.
After winning 27 video games in the routine season, Phoenix removed last year's finalists, the New york city Liberty and Minnesota Lynx, to reach the WNBA Finals for the very first time because 2021 and the 6th time total.
The Aces, meanwhile, were stuck in mediocrity for two and a half months, and the playoffs were not a certainty. But not just did they make the playoffs, they made it in as the No. 2 seed, and after enduring being taken to the max by the Seattle Storm and Indiana Fever, are looking to liquidate a rip-roaring run with a 3rd champion in four seasons.
Who will take a 1-0 lead tonight in Las Vegas? Keep reading for our Mercury vs. Aces Game 1 forecast and best choices and get the very best worth chances from leading online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Mercury vs. Aces Betting Trends
- The Mercury are 9-9 SU and 10-8 ATS as an underdog this season, including 6-6 SU and ATS as a roadway underdog.
- Phoenix is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS this season when an underdog of 5 or less points.
- The under is 13-10-2 in the Mercury's roadway video games this season.
- The under has hit in Phoenix's last 3 video games.
- Las Vegas is 10-6 SU and 8-7-1 ATS this season when favored by 5 or fewer points.
- The under is 7-3 in the Aces' last 10 home video games, consisting of three of their 5 home video games in the playoffs.
Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Best Choices
Prediction: Aces to win
In the very first 2 rounds and six series in this year's playoffs, four teams lost Game 1 and went on to win the series.
Two of those belong to the Mercury, who went down 1-0 versus both the Liberty and Lynx and returned to advance. Another comes from the Aces, who advanced after losing the opener to the Fever.
So, whoever loses tonight shouldn't be too disheartened, especially with the growth to a seven-game series.
Which team will that be?
Despite lastly putting away the Fever after being pushed to the absolute limitation by an inspired Indiana team, the Aces did reveal some vulnerabilities in the semifinals.
A'ja Wilson (26.0 PPG) and Jackie Young (20.5 PPG) are balling out in the playoffs, but they need help if the Aces are to be effective vs. the Mercury in this series.
And as hard as the Fever were to put away, the Mercury will be even more challenging to dispatch. In the last 3 games versus the Lynx, Phoenix outscored Minnesota 87-43 in the fourth quarter and overtime, enabling them to overcome deficits in all three video games to stun the No. 1 seed.
That said, the very first 4 Mercury vs. Aces matchups this season do merit some consideration. Phoenix won the very first one at Michelob Ultra Arena on June 15, when Wilson was out due to a concussion. But the Aces won the last 3, including an 83-61 rout in the most recent conference on August 21.
But after such a hard-fought series against the Fever, could the Aces struggle tonight vs. the Mercury just like they carried out in Game 1 vs. Indiana after a 3 win over the Seattle Storm.
It is possible, but I'm taking them to increase to the occasion tonight.
Mercury vs. Aces Best options
1) Aces -3 (-117 at BetOnline)
I do think we will see a reasonably close video game this evening, but if you are backing the Aces, the percentages favor a cover.
Through the very first 2 rounds of the playoffs, only four of 20 games were chosen by 3 or fewer points. And of the Aces' 37 wins this season, only 6 have been by 3 or less points.
So, if they do win, it will likely be by a minimum of the margin needed to cover the spread.
2) Jackie Young Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115 at Bovada) 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105 at Bovada)
For Game 5 vs. the Fever, I backed Young to discuss 16.5 points and over 26.5 points + rebounds + helps. She did both by some distance, scoring 32 points and including a penny of dimes and 4 rebounds.
While her points amount to is a tick lower tonight, the overall PRA is a couple of ticks greater, which is no surprise when Young has taped 19 helps in her last 2 games.
I'm off of her points this evening, but I enjoy to stick to her PRA, as the Aces require her to keep rolling to endure vs. the Mercury. I might see a 15-point, nine-assist, five-rebound video game from her.
Young has scored 16+ points 29 times (in 52 games) this season, including 6 times in eight championship game, however she has yet to score 16+ points in 4 successive video games this season. So, I see boards and assists doing some heavy lifting tonight.
3) Alyssa Thomas Over 16.5 Points (+110 at Bovada)
Thomas's high for points vs. the Aces this season is 17, which she struck when the Mercury lost by 22 in Vegas in August.
But she has actually scored 17+ points in each of her last five games, consisting of consecutive 20+ point games to go ahead of and close out the Lynx in the house. At these chances, I'm all too delighted to take her to keep it going.
4) Satou Sabally to Score 20+ Points (+200 at Lucky Rebel)
Benefiting from value is also at the forefront of this play. Sabally has actually done this twice against the Aces this season, scoring 22 points in the June win at Michelob Ultra Arena and 26 in an 86-83 loss at PHX Arena on August 15.
She also scored 20+ in each of the Mercury's 3 wins over the Lynx and installed 23 in the Game 3 win over the Liberty in the very first round. With this and the truth that she has actually had 5+ rebounds in six of seven championship game so far both in mind, the over 23.5 for her points + rebounds (which is +105 at Bovada) is likewise worth a look.
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